Date : 20 Dec 2024
Chad-Sudan border: The impact of the civil war in Sudan on security stability in Chad
Since the start of the civil war in Sudan on April 15, 2023, over 620,000 Sudanese have fled to Chad. The massive flow of these refugees is a major concern for Chad, which is already facing major security and socio-economic challenges.
The humanitarian crisis in Eastern Chad
Since the start of the “War of the Generals”, more than 620,000 Sudanese have taken refuge in eastern Chad, mainly in the Ouaddaï, Sila and Tibesti regions. These refugees are spread over some fifteen camps along the Chadian border.
The Adré camp, in the Ouaddaï region, is one of the main entry points into Chad. Overcrowded, it now provides shelter for some 240,000 refugees in difficult living conditions. The Ouaddaï region is one of the most vulnerable in the country. It has poor access to basic services such as drinking water, hygiene and sanitation. Refugees are almost entirely dependent on international humanitarian aid provided by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Médecins sans Frontières (MSF), the World Food Programme (WFP), the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), the Red Cross, etc. However, the humanitarian response lacks sufficient funding to meet the needs of the refugees. However, the humanitarian response lacks funding. In 2024, the UNHCR received only 10% of the $215 million it needs to respond to the situation in eastern Chad. According to the WFP, many local community members and refugees have low or borderline levels of food consumption. Nearly half of all children suffer from anemia. In these camps, the risk of epidemics and famine is growing by the day.
In the town of Adré, the massive flood of refugees is putting great pressure on local resources and creating tensions with the Chadian population. Some families have settled on the land of local residents, who can no longer cultivate it. UN agencies and the Chadian authorities are seeking to relocate them to official camps set up outside the town, far from the border. However, this initiative is hampered by a lack of resources and by the fact that the refugees refuse to move to these new camps.
Impact on Chad's security situation
The crisis in Sudan represents a security threat for Chad. Since the beginning of the conflict, the Chadian authorities have decided to close their border. Only civilians fleeing the fighting are allowed to cross.
The Chadian army has had to deploy on its own over 1,300 km of desert to ensure the security of this border. This difficult operation was previously carried out in cooperation with Sudan as part of the Chad-Sudan Joint Force. In May 2023, Major General Ousman Bahar, coordinator of the eastern operational zones and commander of the mixed force, stated: “When your neighbor's house is burning, you have to take the necessary steps to protect yours. [We are brothers and we are ready to provide security, to intervene at any time, to close and secure our border guardedly, but not beyond”.
Since 2010, the Joint Force has been responsible for guarding the border between the two countries. The 3,000-strong unit has the right of hot pursuit for 100 km on either side of the border. The Force was set up to combat armed groups and militias active on both sides of the border, as well as to prevent incursions by these groups into Chad.
Today, this joint force is no longer in place as an operational structure. The civil war in Sudan eventually led to its disappearance, knowing that it has become progressively less effective since the 2019 coup in Sudan, making cooperation increasingly complicated.
The Chadian armed forces must now single-handedly secure the 1,300 km border with Sudan. A difficult task, since these forces are already mobilized on several fronts, notably in the fight against internal armed groups and jihadist threats.
In Sudan, fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is approaching the Chadian border. According to ACLED, by October 2024, heavy fighting had resulted in over 3,000 casualties in the Sudanese town of El Geneina, just 29 km from the Chadian town of Adré. It was therefore imperative to prevent any possibility of cross-border violence. In times of civil war, military and paramilitary factions in Sudan can use Chadian territory as a base of operations, or carry out targeted attacks on Chadian security forces.
The root cause of weapons propagation
In Chad, fuel and arms trafficking has intensified against the backdrop of the conflict in Sudan. Illicit trafficking fuels the Sudanese conflict by providing armed groups with the resources they need to continue fighting. Along the 1,300 km border, desert and semi-desert areas are ideal for arms and fuel trafficking. The Chadian armed forces are trying to stem this traffic. General Ousman Bahar points out that, “in previous years, the conflict in Darfur and Libya led to the proliferation of weapons of war. We are therefore very determined to avoid arms and disorder again, and also to try to disarm some civilians who may come armed”. Despite the closed border, unguarded roads in remote areas allow smugglers to move weapons and fuel easily from one country to another. Traffickers in eastern Chad have reported an increase in cross-border trafficking of arms and fuel from Chad and Libya. The proceeds of this traffic come mainly from Libya, from criminal networks or from states supporting rebel factions. The conflict in Sudan is likely to further increase the already problematic arms and fuel trafficking between Sudan and Chad, supplying the conflict, jihadist groups and criminal militias. This traffic is therefore a potential source of destabilization and insecurity for Chad.
Civil war in Sudan: background and parties involved
On June 30, 1989, in Sudan, Colonel Omar Hassan Ahmed el-Bechir overthrew Prime Minister Sadeq al-Mahdi's fragile coalition government in a military coup. In power, he established an Islamic military dictatorship.
On February 26, 2003, the Darfur war broke out in western Sudan. It pitted non-Arab rebel groups such as the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and the Darfur Liberation Front (DLF) against the Sudanese government of Omar el-Bechir, which supported the Arab Janjaweed militia. Although peace agreements have been signed, such as the Darfur Peace Agreement (2006) and the Doha Peace Agreement (2011), violence has persisted. The conflict has claimed more than 100,000 victims and displaced 2.7 million people.
On April 11, 2019, the dictatorship of Omar el-Bechir was overthrown by popular protests.
After Bechir's fall, Sudan begins a transition to civilian rule. A Sovereign Council is created, bringing together civilians and military officers. It was headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the Sudanese Armed Forces.
On October 25, 2021, General al-Burhan led a coup d'état overthrowing the civilian government headed by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. The government was dissolved and the constitution suspended.
Al-Burhan's authority was subsequently challenged by general Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (“Hemetti”), leader of the FSR: a Sudanese paramilitary militia that originated from the Janjaweed.